As we have always focussed on the short term in politics and medicine, evidenced by the manpower planning failures, we are probably not going to change the way society deals with deaths of despair, drug addiction and psychological problems in children, usually related to parenting or the social problems of the family. What has happened in USA is going to happen here – and in spades. Democracy Paradox explains Anne Case and Angus Deaton’s findings (2019) that early deaths in non-hispanic whites without a college degree are rising rapidly. See the video of the Tanner Lecture at Princeton 2019 here. The levelling up agenda may have no money but these problems are often in the left behind communities at the edges of the UK. As one character in game of thrones says, before he is poisoned “a good adviser tells hard truths”. NHSreality may die off with the author, but the truths written on record will remain.
April 2021: Covid has accellerated the process to Americanisation of drug, alcohol and “despair” deaths.
Bruce Bower Nov 2020 in Science News:‘ Deaths of despair’ are rising. It’s time to define despair – Scientists investigate whether despair is distinct from mental disorders
- Study found opioid overdose admissions in England’s NHS soared to 16,000 in 2018, up from 10,000 in 2008
- The cost of treating the opioid cases has cost the NHS £137 million in a decade, and £10 million in 2018 alone
- Data has stoked fears the UK faces an opioid addiction crisis like the US’s prescription painkiller epidemic

NHS reality posts on Manpower Planning
Update 7th Feb 2022: Sean O’Neill in the Times: County line drug gangs target universities
County lines gangs are targeting university campuses and trying to take control of the student drug trade. Vice-chancellors are alarmed that previously isolated incidents of gangs operating on campuses accelerated during lockdown when students were often confined to halls of residence and seen as a “captive market”. Senior figures in the sector told The Times they were aware of students being intimidated into “cuckooing” — allowing their rooms to be used for storing and dealing drugs. They are also concerned that gangs organised lockdown parties in student accommodation blocks to begin offering recreational drugs to students.

We have had conversations with police and the National Crime Agency about county lines gangs focusing on student populations,” said a higher education source. “The evidence comes from universities and from accommodation providers but this trend has grown during lockdowns. They are selling cocaine but also ecstasy, ketamine and cannabis. This is a huge issue for the sector. Illicit drug use is a major factor in student mental health.”The shift to selling drugs to students is a new tactic by county lines gangs, so named because their trade is conducted via designated mobile phone “lines” operated from larger cities to control drug markets in provincial towns and rural areas. Gangs have used extreme violence to control the drugs trade. Previously the primary focus of county lines was on selling heroin and crack cocaine to hardened drug users and addicted populations. Joe Caluori, a county lines expert at the crime and justice consultancy Crest, said the scale of activity in university towns was not properly understood. “Although crack and heroin remain the core products in university towns where county lines gangs operate, there have been reports of dealing MDMA, ketamine and powder cocaine to recreational drug users,” he said.
Dame Carol Black, who conducted a drugs review for the government in 2020, said she had encountered speculation about what was happening on campus but struggled to get information from universities. Her report cited anecdotal evidence of gangs dealing cocaine and crack cocaine to students.

Update 23rd April 2022 the Guardian: Gun violence becomes leading cause of death among US youth, data shows – A report reveals a 30% increase in firearm-related deaths between 2019 and 2020, including incidents of suicides and accidental shootings
