We are looking at the same curve in all the G8. This information was processed and analysed by David M. Thank you. It does look as if whatever we do, other than lock-down, makes little difference to the final outcome.
My understanding is that if on a ventilator you have 1:5 chance of survival
The charts I have seen in the media tend to show the trajectories from a common point such as the 3rd, 10th
or 100th death. I have taken a different approach and instead have found which time lag gives the best fit
between the deaths in the UK and each of the major western countries. The results are very interesting and
are captured in the graphs below.
My simplistic conclusions
• The best fits are found if one assumes that in the UK the contagion is running 15-days behind that
in Italy, 7-days behind that in Spain, 4-days behind France, 3-days ahead of Germany and 4-days
ahead of the US.
• It would appear that no matter what approach to deal with the crisis each western country is
taking, we are all following a time-lagged (almost-) synchronised trajectory. [Let’s hope that we
can collectively find a way to change that trajectory.]
• The rate at which deaths are rising in the UK is now faster than at the same stage in Italy, Spain and France……….