We are facing the same scale of infections as all the other G8 countries..

We are looking at the same curve in all the G8. This information was processed and analysed by David M. Thank you. It does look as if whatever we do, other than lock-down, makes little difference to the final outcome.

My understanding is that if on a ventilator you have 1:5 chance of survival

2020-04-03 Coronavirus deaths – UK v Italy Spain France Germany US

The charts I have seen in the media tend to show the trajectories from a common point such as the 3rd, 10th
or 100th death. I have taken a different approach and instead have found which time lag gives the best fit
between the deaths in the UK and each of the major western countries. The results are very interesting and
are captured in the graphs below.
My simplistic conclusions
• The best fits are found if one assumes that in the UK the contagion is running 15-days behind that
in Italy, 7-days behind that in Spain, 4-days behind France, 3-days ahead of Germany and 4-days
ahead of the US.
• It would appear that no matter what approach to deal with the crisis each western country is
taking, we are all following a time-lagged (almost-) synchronised trajectory. [Let’s hope that we
can collectively find a way to change that trajectory.]
• The rate at which deaths are rising in the UK is now faster than at the same stage in Italy, Spain and France……….

This entry was posted in A Personal View, Stories in the Media on by .

About Roger Burns - retired GP

I am a retired GP and medical educator. I have supported patient participation throughout my career, and my practice, St Thomas; Surgery, has had a longstanding and active Patient Participation Group (PPG). I support the idea of Community Health Councils, although I feel they should be funded at arms length from government. I have taught GP trainees for 30 years, and been a Programme Director for GP training in Pembrokeshire 20 years. I served on the Pembrokeshire LHG and LHB for a total of 10 years. I completed an MBA in 1996, and I along with most others, never had an exit interview from any job in the NHS! I completed an MBA in 1996, and was a runner up for the Adam Smith prize for economy and efficiency in government in that year. This was owing to a suggestion (St Thomas' Mutual) that practices had incentives for saving by being allowed to buy rationed out services in the following year.

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