The next 50 years: is the NHS financially sustainable? Reconstruction and renewal is needed urgently….

With no disincentive to make a claim, and all political parties remaining in denial, all of us in the professions know the answer to the rhetorical question. When the media and the politicians come on board something can and will be done. Until then covert post code rationing gets worse.. As the news comes thicker and faster public discontent will rise, and civil unrest is a real possibility because of the long lead-in time for reconstruction and renewal.

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The King’s Fund report: The next 50 years: is the NHS financially sustainable?

With the NHS facing a virtual freeze in its spending to 2014/15 and prospects for little or no real funding increases for some years after, what does the long-term future hold for the NHS?

The publication of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) 2012 Fiscal Sustainability report provided a timely basis for examining and debating possible trajectories of spending in the future and the implications for NHS policy.

Robert Chote, Chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), shares the results of the OBR’s 2012 Fiscal Sustainability report, with a focus on health care spending.

Paul Johnson, Director, Institute of Fiscal Studies, gives a background to economic growth in the UK and discusses what future NHS spending could look like.

John Appleby, Chief Economist at The King’s Fund, looks at UK and US health care spending projections and the share of wealth we might want to devote to health care in the future.

Kate Gibbon in The Times 22nd September reports: Mental health funding cut to prop up other NHS services and this is the reality of current decision making by knee jerk and “what we might get away with”.

Rupert Neate in New York reports for The Guardian 21st September, on the opportunism of the Pharmaceutical Industry when there is poor procurement control:  US drug company hiked price of acne cream by 3,900% in less than 18 months

The Belfast Telegraph on 22nd September reveals how little accurate information the UK Health Services have, and how cancellations affect the services. Thousands of cancelled operations not included in official figures and the BBC ‘Thousands’ hit by late-cancelled operations

And in June John Appleby asked: “Is the UK spending more than we thought on health care (and much less on social care)?”

in 2015 the BMJ published “John Appleby: Hoping for the “Appleby paradox”       ( BMJ 2015;350:h107 )

ITV news reported 22nd September on the increasing fear of not being eligible (depending on your post code) for IVF: Rates of IVF treatment on NHS in England reach ’12-year low’

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This entry was posted in A Personal View, Rationing, Stories in the Media on by .

About Roger Burns - retired GP

I am a retired GP and medical educator. I have supported patient participation throughout my career, and my practice, St Thomas; Surgery, has had a longstanding and active Patient Participation Group (PPG). I support the idea of Community Health Councils, although I feel they should be funded at arms length from government. I have taught GP trainees for 30 years, and been a Programme Director for GP training in Pembrokeshire 20 years. I served on the Pembrokeshire LHG and LHB for a total of 10 years. I completed an MBA in 1996, and I along with most others, never had an exit interview from any job in the NHS! I completed an MBA in 1996, and was a runner up for the Adam Smith prize for economy and efficiency in government in that year. This was owing to a suggestion (St Thomas' Mutual) that practices had incentives for saving by being allowed to buy rationed out services in the following year.

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